W razie jakichkolwiek wątpliwości, możesz bezpłatnie skorzystać z naszej Obsługi Klienta. Sukcesem w inwestowaniu jest rozumienie danego środka finansowego i wybór tych, które zakładają realną stopę zwrotu. Termin ten symbolizuje też w pewnym zakresie bezsensowność i nieprawdziwość przewidywań opartych na minionych doświadczeniach i modelach.
This is done consciously by some as a risky trading strategy, while some critics argue that it is done either unconsciously by some, unaware of the hazards "innocent fraud"or consciously by others, particularly in hedge funds. Risky strategy[ edit ] Warianty balustrady pokladowej done consciously, with one's own capital or openly disclosed to investors, this is a risky strategy, but appeals to some: one will want to exit the trade before the rare event happens.
This occurs for instance in Strategia handlu opcjami TALEB speculative bubblewhere one purchases an asset in the expectation that it will likely go up, but may plummet, and hopes to sell the asset before the bubble bursts. This has also been referred to as "picking up pennies in front of a steamroller". Kay has described Taleb Distributions as the basis of the carry trade and has claimed that along with mark-to-market accounting and other practices, constitute part of what John Kenneth Galbraith has called "innocent fraud".
Taleb distributions pose several fundamental problems, all possibly leading to risk being overlooked: presence of extreme adverse events The very presence or possibility of adverse events may pose a problem per se, which is ignored by only looking at the average case — a decision may be good in expectation in the aggregate, in the long termbut a single rare event may ruin the investor.
This is exacerbated by the difficulty of estimating the probability of rare events in this example one would need to observe thousands of trials to estimate the probability with confidenceand by the use of financial leverage : mistaking a small loss for a small gain and magnifying by leverage yields a hidden large loss.
More formally, while the risks for a known distribution can be calculated, in practice Strategia handlu opcjami TALEB does not know the distribution: one is operating under uncertaintyin economics called Knightian uncertainty.
A number of mitigants have been proposed, by Taleb and others. Many funds have started offering "tail protection" Strategia handlu opcjami TALEB as the one advocated by Taleb.
Widely used in industry, they do not include unforeseen events but emphasize various possibilities and what one stands to lose, so one is not blinded by absence of losses thus far. These include minimaxminimax regretand info-gap decision theory. For example, paying banks staff in long-term stock options in their bank rather than in cash bonuses.